TUNIS: As a tense calm returns to Tunisia and talks on a new government get under way, following the Arab world's first popular revolt in recent history, one question has emerged, raising both hopes and fears: Could it also happen in other regimes in the region?
Some see the downfall of former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was forced to resign by a wave of protests last Friday, as a warning to other autocratic leaders across the Arab world.
Tunisia's people-power uprising - a first for the region, and the result of a potent mix of economic gripes and calls for political freedoms - could now embolden similar calls in a region dominated by authoritarian leaders and monarchs, say analysts.
Dr Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Middle East Centre based in Beirut, Lebanon, said: 'It could be quite inspiring for the rest of the Arab world.'
Indeed, activists in some nearby countries have already caught on.
In Yemeni capital Sanaa yesterday, about 1,000 students marched through the streets urging Arabs to rise up against their leaders, chanting: 'Liberty's Tunisia, Sanaa salutes you a thousand times.'
In Cairo, protesters mocked Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, saying: 'Tunisia is teaching us a lesson.'
Similar lines were heard in Jordan from trade union activists.
These protests came fresh on the heels of two days of chaos in Tunisia, which had resulted from protests sparked by the suicide of a 26-year-old university graduate prevented by police from selling fruit and vegetables to make a living.
Yesterday, the capital Tunis was relatively quiet as the army continued its lockdown of the city centre, although gunfire broke out between police and a gang in front of an opposition party's offices.
The former president's security chief was also arrested for plotting against the new leadership.
With Mr Ben Ali, 74, having fled to Saudi Arabia, Tunisia's acting leaders are now looking into political reforms, with hopes of its first multiparty government.
Yesterday, its main political parties held talks on forming a coalition government after interim President Fouad Mebazaa, who took office last Saturday, asked Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi to form a government of national unity.
'A unity government is necessary in the greater national interest,' Mr Mebazaa said, as the Constitutional Council declared that a presidential election should be held in two months. All Tunisians can now take part in national politics, he said.
That could spur activists in countries like Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and Syria, where there are also gripes over poverty, unemployment, corruption and limits on freedoms - issues that toppled Mr Ben Ali.
Analysts like Dr Sami Alfaraj, director of the Kuwait Centre for Strategic Studies, say Tunisia has shown the power of popular upheaval and street-born revolt.
'This gets planted in minds that it is possible. They believe it can happen in their country. Leaders cannot just dismiss that.'
Already, the events have caused jitters among regional leaders. Iran said yesterday it was 'worried' about the situation in Tunisia. The Arab League called for calm, saying it was 'the beginning of one era and the end of another'.
But experts also believe chances of a rapid domino-style political house-cleaning, like that seen in Eastern Europe after the Cold War, appear far less likely.
Many states with deep political rifts, such as Egypt and Iran, maintain vast security forces heavily vested in the status quo. Other hardline regimes like Syria come down harshly and swiftly on dissent.
On the streets, however, activists in various Arab nations are harbouring hopes of replicating Tunisia's experience.
Cairo activist Mohammed Adel said: 'What happened in Tunis gave hope to all of us that fear can be broken and that dictatorships can be defeated.'
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, ASSOCIATED PRESS
