GOVERNMENT officials, analysts and academics continue to debate the merits of admitting Timor Leste this year to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, seemingly unaware that the subject is closed.
Despite Jakarta's vigorous efforts to rally support for Timor Leste's membership, while Indonesia chairs Asean this year, the discussion has been moot since Singapore sent word in March that it would block the proposal.
As the regional organisation works by consensus, meetings in Jakarta this week of Asean's highest decision-making bodies will confirm that Timor Leste must wait to become the 11th member.
Dili's application, lodged in March, has been circulated by Indonesia to the nine other Asean member countries, recommending that the matter be given 'urgent attention'.
It will be considered by Asean senior officials today and by foreign ministers and the Asean Coordination Council tomorrow. It will die there, though the ministers may take the step of informing Asean leaders, at their weekend summit, that there is no consensus.
While the Asean Summit is still free to discuss any issue, Indonesia must weigh the diplomatic cost of taking the matter further. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has publicly promised to make 'every effort' to realise Timor Leste's dream of becoming an Asean member, could suffer the indignity of being rebuffed if he were tempted to press Dili's case with fellow leaders.
The decision to admit Timor Leste, which suffered vast loss of life and property while it was occupied by Indonesia for 24 years before becoming independent in 2002, has been affirmed in principle.
Asean foreign ministers made it clear at a meeting with the Timor Leste foreign minister in 2007 that Dili was welcome to join the group. Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo, who chaired the meeting, said it was no longer a question of 'whether' but 'when'.
Asean, however, is split over whether Timor Leste, the poorest and least developed country in South-east Asia, is ready to fulfil all the membership obligations.
Singapore, which has registered the strongest objection, argues that Timor Leste lacks the institutions and competent officials to attend the 1,000 or more Asean meetings that are held annually.
Moreover, Singapore believes that the plan to create an Asean economic community by 2015 will be jeopardised by Timor Leste's entry, and that South-east Asia risks being squeezed into irrelevance in the shadow of booming China and India.
Despite Timor Leste's assurances to the contrary, there are also doubts about the fledgling democracy's political stability. Elements in the armed forces mounted a rebellion in 2007, and only three years ago, President Jose Ramos Horta was shot in an attempted assassination.
Vietnam, which had reservations from the start about Timor Leste's immediate admission, has become more forthright about them, according to regional diplomats.
Hanoi harbours historical fears about China's domination of South-east Asia, and worries that Beijing will hold sway over the region if Asean becomes irrelevant, the diplomats say.
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar have hesitated to support Dili's admission for reasons other than a possible slowdown in community building.
Ranked 162nd in the United Nations Development Programme's 2009 Human Development Index, Timor Leste needs development assistance that Asean can provide.
But Laos, ranked 133, Cambodia, 137, and Myanmar, 138, fret that Asean may lack the resources to help one more very poor state.
Moreover, Timor Leste could pose serious competition to small member countries vying for foreign direct investment. Timor Leste aspires to be a free port, and is studying Singapore's development experience as a possible model.
Cambodia's lack of enthusiasm for Timor Leste's membership is particularly interesting and appears to represent a shift in position.
As recently as late March, Prime Minister Hun Sen assured President Ramos Horta, on a visit to Phnom Penh, that Cambodia would support its application, either this year or in 2012, when Cambodia is scheduled to chair Asean.
Despite the differences in Asean ranks, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa has continued to champion Timor Leste's entry, supported by Thailand and the Philippines.
Many independent commentators also favour Timor Leste's admission, arguing for a show of sympathy after the country's bloody independence struggle and in favour of Jakarta's act of reconciliation.
In normal circumstances, Dr Natalegawa might have stood a chance of persuading other members of Asean to change their mind.
But his efforts have been doomed since early March, within days of Timor Leste submitting its application, when Singapore formally put its position on the table, according to Asean sources.
Outlining its opposition, Singapore took the exceptional step of declaring that it was prepared to veto a consensus on membership, the sources say.
Singapore's rigid stand has caused an undercurrent of speculation and dissension within Asean ranks, but no public recrimination so far.
Barry Wain is writer-in-residence at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
