Sunday, May 04, 2008

The grey world of atomic secrets

PITY the United States' intelligence community. It was once 'certain' that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction; none was subsequently found.

It then claimed to have 'precise knowledge' about Iran's nuclear intentions, only to reverse its position earlier this year.

But now, there is an even better story: This week, in hearings before Congress, Washington's spooks claimed that Syria may have been close to becoming a nuclear power. However, nobody needs to worry, because Israel supposedly destroyed Syria's nuclear capability in a single air raid last September.

Despite the spectacular nature of the revelations, the story is actually fairly old.

Security specialists have long known about the Israeli raid and that this may have been against a 'nuclear' installation. But why should the US choose to reveal this now? And why is Israel still keeping quiet?

The US alleges that the Syrians got their nuclear technology from North Korea. Since Washington was engaged in delicate nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang at the time the Israelis struck against Syria, it is possible that the US did not want to reveal too much then.

But the deal with Pyongyang is still precarious; spoiling the diplomatic mood now does not make sense.

Another explanation is that the US decided to reveal the affair to show its displeasure at the secret negotiations between Syria and Israel.

Over the last few weeks, Jerusalem and Damascus have exchanged emissaries with a view to a possible peace deal.

But because Israel is apparently touting the possibility of accepting Syria's control over Lebanon as part of the agreement, an option which the US rejects out of hand, Washington has now spilled the beans on Syria.

That would explain Israel's stunned silence.

But all these explanations may be too clever by half. For the real answer to the mystery is quite simple: The tussle is not about Syria, but about Iran.

As Central Intelligence Agency director Michael Hayden admitted to Congress, his spies never knew about the alleged Syrian nuclear facility despite the fact that it was near the Iraq border, an area constantly patrolled by US surveillance satellites.

In effect, the US intelligence community was forced to admit that it was inefficient in performing one of its chief tasks: preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Could it be that it is also wrong in its current assessment that Iran had stopped its nuclear quest? This is what the Israelis would like to suggest, but they have to remain quiet since the issue is far too sensitive in US domestic policy terms.

The game is risky. The US Congress is already furious that it was not kept in the picture. So is the International Atomic Energy Agency, which was entitled to receive such data.

However, all this pales into insignificance in comparison with what the White House and the Israelis seek to achieve: a new consensus that Iran remains a big nuclear threat.

The world of espionage remains, as always, full of smoke and mirrors.

- Straits Times 3 May 2008