Friday, April 22, 2011

EU gropes in vain for China lifeline

So, the dialogue of the deaf between Europe and China is set to continue, with the Chinese seeming to offer help while real salvation remains a mirage.

LONDON: China sits on massive foreign currency reserves which it wishes to diversify away from the falling United States dollar.

The Europeans, meanwhile, need all the cash they can get to service their mounting debts.

Politically, Beijing wants to be helpful to Europe, its single biggest export market.

But if the Europeans are banking on China to ride to their rescue, they are likely to be in for disappointment.

Most recently, Spain was forced to backtrack on claims that China had agreed to help it overcome its financial crisis.

As Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero toured China and Singapore last week, his officials back home announced with jubilation that China's sovereign wealth fund was 'committed' to 'inject' €9.3 billion (S$16.7 billion) into Spain's ailing banks.

However, they were quickly forced to swallow their words when a spokesman for China Investment Corporation denied the existence of any agreement.

'We talked about investment in the Spanish bank sector,' she told Western news agencies, 'but there was no mention of investment figures.'

The embarrassing episode was put down to a simple 'communication error'.

But it is not the first time that extravagant European claims about Chinese financial help ended with little or no cash changing hands.

The common snag: What Europe offers, the Chinese do not find interesting, while the assets which China really wants to buy, the Europeans are unwilling to sell.

Because of their dire financial situation, some European countries can borrow only at extortionate interest rates. On Monday, credit rating agencies downgraded Ireland's debts to junk status. Countries such as Ireland, Greece and Portugal - all of which had to be bailed out from bankruptcy - would love to borrow from China on better terms. But China is not inclined to lend on anything other than normal market rates in such an uncertain environment.

The Chinese also face huge risks if they accede to such proposals as an appeal for cash by Mr Zapatero. Spain is grappling with the problem of its 'cajas', small local savings banks which are paralysed by bad property loans.

Madrid's claims that the total amount stands at only €20 billion is believed by nobody; even Spain's biggest banks refuse to touch the cajas.

The idea that China would consent to bankroll about half of this bad debt - as Spain is hoping - remains fanciful.

China is not averse, however, to extracting maximum political advantage from Europe's predicament, by holding out the promise of future financial help.

In June last year, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou claimed to have obtained a pledge from Beijing to invest in his country.

Last November, Chinese President Hu Jintao promised during a visit to Portugal that he would 'look favourably' upon purchases of that country's debt.

And in January, Vice-Premier Li Keqiang toured Spain with a promise to 'play a key role' in that country's financial stabilisation.

Small amounts of Chinese cash trickled through. But none made the slightest bit of difference to Europe's predicament.

Beijing's true opinion of Europe was revealed last Saturday by Mr Lou Jiwei, the boss of China Investment Corporation, the country's sovereign wealth fund.

Addressing the Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of regional business and political leaders held on Hainan island, he said that 'from the investment perspective', he was 'not very optimistic about Europe'.

This did not mean that China would not like to invest in Europe, he added. 'There are still opportunities in Europe, such as infrastructure sectors,' he said.

But, as Beijing knows only too well, these sectors are out of bounds to foreigners, and the European Union is now examining the introduction of even more restrictions on the purchase of assets in what are deemed as Europe's 'strategic industries'.
By Jonathan Eyal, Europe Correspondent
From the Straits Times